Through the duration of their four game series in Boston, the Yankees and the Red Sox combined to score 56 runs (14 per game). Today they are once again in a great position to deliver a high scoring performance. Nathan Eovaldi will start for the Red Sox on the mound in his first game in over a month. On the surface his numbers look good with a 3.16, however his xERA is a 4.30 signaling that luck has been a huge factor in keeping his numbers solid. Through five starts in the month of May, Eovaldi surrendered 9 home runs, giving up at least one in every game. He demonstrated his ability to struggle against good lineups on May 17th, allowing 8 hits, 9 runs, and 5 home runs against the Astros through just 1.2 innings. Today he is in for his tallest task of the season, taking on a Yankees lineup that ranks 1st in runs per 9 (5.24), 1st in OPS (.768), and 1st in home runs per game (1.68). In his lone start against the Yankees this season, he allowed 5 hits and 3 runs through 5 innings, and was lucky to just allow 3 runs as he surrendered 2 home runs. For the Yankees, Jordan Montgomery will take the mound. He has also benefited from luck this season posting a 3.19 ERA while holding an xERA of 4.11. Through two starts against this Red Sox lineup this season he has surrendered 9 hits, 5 runs, and a home run through just 8 innings. The Red Sox have had success against left handed pitching this season recording a .267 batting average and scoring 5.44 runs per 9 against lefties, both higher than their overall averages. In the Yankees last 4 games against teams with winning records, the over is 4-0. When Montgomery starts in games with a set total between 7-8.5, the over is 4-0. In the Red Sox and the Yankees last 4 meetings, the over is 4-0. Today all those trends should continue through an offensive explosion in the Bronx.
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